Package: pandemics 0.1.0

pandemics: Monitoring a Developing Pandemic with Available Data

Full dynamic system to describe and forecast the spread and the severity of a developing pandemic, based on available data. These data are number of infections, hospitalizations, deaths and recoveries notified each day. The system consists of three transitions, infection-infection, infection-hospital and hospital-death/recovery. The intensities of these transitions are dynamic and estimated using non-parametric local linear estimators. The package can be used to provide forecasts and survival indicators such as the median time spent in hospital and the probability that a patient who has been in hospital for a number of days can leave it alive. Methods are described in Gámiz, Mammen, Martínez-Miranda, and Nielsen (2024) <doi:10.48550/arXiv.2308.09918> and <doi:10.48550/arXiv.2308.09919>.

Authors:María Luz Gámiz [aut, cph], Enno Mammen [aut, cph], María Dolores Martínez-Miranda [aut, cre, cph], Jens Perch Nielsen [aut, cph]